No one knows how to parse out a bet like a seasoned gambler. And while the Vegas odds aren’t 100% accurate, some oddsmakers already predicted what happened in the early morning hours of June 13, 2025.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced that Israel declared a special emergency across the country as the Israel Defence Forces conducted what it calls a “preemptive strike” against Iran, a statement repeated by the IDF on Twitter. Residents of Tehran somewhat confirmed, reporting the sounds of explosions.
While the attack might come as a surprise to some, Polymarket wasn’t shocked at all.
For those not in the know, Polymarket is a “prediction market” that allows users to gain (or lose) on almost any world event by trading shares in possible outcomes. Run on the Polygon blockchain network, users deposit cryptocurrency into their accounts (sorry, cash gamblers, stick to DraftKings) and buy “yes” or “no” shares toward their predicted outcome. Odds will shift in real-time as people buy shares. When the event settles, betters get a payout based on their shares.
It’s essentially a commodities market meets a casino – but in a casino, the games with the best chances of winning are craps (47%), baccarat (45.8%), and blackjack (42%). With a simple yes/no bet, your odds are 50-50, and you can win more the more you believe in your bet (and put your money where your mouth is). All the while, increased betting encourages others to make the same bet, thereby raising the overall cash volume of the bet.
Despite all the trouble it faced in its early days, it certainly stunned the world in 2024 when it accurately predicted the outcome of the 2024 Presidential Election. Although the last pre-election poll saw Kamala Harris and Donald Trump running neck-and-neck, Trump was leading Harris by 27% on Polymarket. The disparity was enough to make some question whether the decentralized market was being manipulated.
It wasn’t. The gamblers were correct. And their predictions have a 91.2% accuracy rate a month before the markets resolve, according to data scientist Alex McCullough. He created a statistical model on Dune that shows how accurate the prediction market is four hours before a market resolves (94%), 12 hours (90.7%), one day (88.7%), and one week (89.5%).
Gamblers on the platform accurately predicted the COVID-19 vaccine approvals in 2020, Joe Biden’s 2020 election victory, the outcome of the 2022 midterm elections, Russia’s failure to capture Kyiv in 2022, and that actor Will Smith would not lose his Oscar after slapping Chris Rock on live television.
Polymarket on Israel vs. Iran
Polymarket predicted an 88% chance of an Israeli strike on the Islamic Republic in June, a 71% chance of the IDF hitting an Iranian nuclear facility in the same time frame, and a 99% chance of an Israeli strike by Friday the 13th. Iran’s bad luck is the Polymarketeer’s gain.
But it’s not really bad luck, because it’s not exactly like gambling. For starters, Benjamin Netanyahu’s government appears to launch military attacks on other countries, almost magically diverting attention from his domestic political troubles. Since his coalition government nearly collapsed the day prior and tensions in the region have been on the rise, a bet on an Israeli attack might seem like a sure thing to some people. It’s a lot more certain than betting on the horse that emptied its bowels before the starting bell.
For those worried about other wars, the markets say there’s only an 8% chance of China invading Taiwan in 2025, a 26% chance of the U.S. attacking Iran before July, and just a 16% chance of any nuclear weapon detonation in 2025. The Polymarket odds are also against a nuclear deal with Iran, a ceasefire in Gaza, or an end to the Russia-Ukraine War.
As of this writing, however, there’s a 70% chance of Iran striking back before the weekend.
Don’t Miss the Best of Mighty News
We Are The Mighty is a celebration of military service, with a mission to entertain, inform, and inspire those who serve and those who support them. We are made by and for current service members, veterans, spouses, family members, and civilians who want to be part of this community. Keep up with the best in military culture and entertainment: subscribe to the We Are The Mighty newsletter.